Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm LESTER Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261439
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

It appears that northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment is
continuing to prevent Lester from strengthening.  The deep
convection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to burst,
but there is little evidence of banding features at this time.
Subject Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt from SAB
and TAFB, and the earlier ASCAT data suggests that the intensity was
around 45 to 50 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt for
this advisory.  The shear is expected to decrease very soon, which
favors some intensification while Lester remains over warm water
during the next few days.  Nearby dry air could occasionally
interrupt the intensification process during this time, so only
gradually strengthening is anticipated through 72 hours.  After that
time, slightly cooler waters and a more stable airmass near the
track could cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period.

Lester is moving westward or 280/6.  A strong mid- to upper-level
ridge centered well west of the Baja California is expected to
remain intact through the middle of next week.  This ridge should
steer Lester westward at a little faster forward speed throughout
the entire forecast period.  The guidance is in very good agreement
with this scenario, and the new NHC track is essentially an update
of the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 17.1N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 17.3N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.4N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 17.4N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.5N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 17.5N 127.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 17.5N 132.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 17.2N 137.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown