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Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172033
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult
to locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located
near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been
absent from the center for more than six hours, and what little
convection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by
the rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being
designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued
at this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue
during the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic
conditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an
open trough by Thursday.  The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for
dissipation within the next 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24
hours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move
slowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak
mid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and
move into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where
dissipation of the system is expected.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Jun-2015 20:33:23 UTC