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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300232
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

The depression's cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds with a few small patches of deep convection.  The initial
intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a
Dvorak CI number from TAFB.  North-northwesterly shear and dry air
continue to affect the cyclone.  Although the shear is expected to
lessen, even drier air lies ahead of the system.  The global models
show the depression opening into a trough in a day or so, and the
official forecast follows that guidance.  The depression could
become a remnant low before it dissipates if organized deep
convection does not return soon.

The initial motion estimate is 265/14.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer the
cyclone just south of due west until it dissipates.  The NHC track
forecast is an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of
the guidance envelope.  This system is expected to cross into the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on
Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 16.6N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 16.4N 139.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 16.2N 142.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Jul-2015 02:32:39 UTC