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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 232033
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Kenneth's organized deep convection has been gone for over 12 hours
now.  Satellite images also suggest it is losing its tropical
character, with some possible frontal structures developing near
and northeast of the center.  Thus, it no longer meets the
requirements of a tropical cyclone, and this is the final advisory.
The wind speed is held at 35 kt owing to the tight low-level
circulation seen on visible imagery. The post-tropical cyclone
should gradually spin down over cold waters and generally move
north-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed over the
next couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, when the cyclone
is likely to be very weak and shallow, a turn toward the northwest
is expected following the low-level flow. The official track
forecast is very close to the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 25.4N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  24/0600Z 26.4N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z 27.5N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z 28.1N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 28.7N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z 31.2N 139.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Aug-2017 20:33:59 UTC