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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281434
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the eye is no
longer observed on conventional imagery, but it is hidden under the
cirrus canopy as revealed by a 1206 UTC SSMIS pass. The convection
continues to be concentrated near the center, and the outflow is
fair.  Dvorak objective numbers from CIMMS and estimates
from TAFB and SAB support a lower intensity of 75 kt.

There are no obvious reasons why Lester should continue to weaken.
The environment, at least for the next few days, does not appear to
be detrimental for Lester to intensify, other than perhaps a small
decrease in the SSTs.  Given these factors, the NHC forecast calls
for no change in intensity during the next 4 days with some
weakening thereafter when Lester eventually encounters drier air.
This forecast is consistent with the intensity consensus model.

Lester is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The track
forecast is a little more straightforward since the hurricane is
embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow associated with a
persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. By the end of
the forecast period, Lester will likely turn west-northwest toward
a weakness inf the ridge.  Track guidance is tightly packed, and the
NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and does
not deviate much from the previous NHC prediction

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 18.1N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 18.2N 125.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.3N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.5N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 18.5N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 18.5N 138.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 19.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila