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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280843
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Lester's cloud pattern is not as well organized as it was late
yesterday.  The distribution of deep convection within the
hurricane's central dense overcast has become asymmetric and an
eye is no longer visible.  Despite Lester's degraded appearance in
conventional satellite imagery, microwave data from several hours
ago suggested that Lester was generally maintaining its inner-core
structure. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased since the last advisory.
A blend of Final T- and CI-numbers from both satellite agencies
supports lowering the initial intensity estimate to 85 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/12.  A strong subtropical ridge
should steer Lester just north of due-west for the next 3 to 4 days.
Longer term, uncertainty regarding the strength of the subtropical
ridge north of Lester and any potential binary interaction with
Madeline come into play.  This uncertainty seems to be less than in
previous cycles, however, with the GFS and ECMWF now much closer at
96 and 120 hours. The new NHC track is close to a blend of these two
models throughout the forecast period and is just a bit to the
south of the previous forecast at those times.

It is not clear what interrupted Lester's intensification.
Regardless, Lester should be in a low-shear, marginally moist
environment and over only gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures during the next few days.  Assuming that the hurricane
continues to retain its inner-core structure, this could allow
Lester to re-intensify some during the next 12 to 24 hours before it
encounters even drier mid-level air. However, none of the intensity
guidance shows this possibility, and instead shows slow weakening
for the remainder of the forecast period.  The intensity forecast is
a challenging one, and is of overall low confidence.  It shows
little change in strength in the short term and is slightly above
the consensus aids, but is then near the multi-model consensus after
that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 17.9N 122.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 18.1N 126.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 18.2N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 18.4N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 18.4N 137.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 18.6N 142.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 19.4N 147.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain