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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 242034
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Georgette has continued to strengthen today, with a cloudy eye now
seen in visible imagery surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of
around -70C.  The initial intensity is set to 90 kt based on the
latest Dvorak estimates of T5.0 from TAFB and SAB.  Georgette still
has a chance to intensity further in the next 12 hours before SSTs
cool below 26C along the track.  After that time, slow weakening
should begin, followed by a faster rate of decay by 36 hours as
SSTs cool below 25C and the shear increases a bit.  Georgette is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3-4 days.  The NHC
intensity forecast is above all of the guidance through 24 hours
and near or a little below the LGEM.

The initial motion estimate is 300/09.  The mid-level anticyclone
centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72
hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward
and slow down.  Late in the period, a shallow post-tropical
Georgette should accelerate back toward the west in the low-level
trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is again adjusted a little to
the right of the previous one and is not far from the new TVCN
multi-model consensus.

The wind radii have been adjusted based on a pair of ASCAT passes
around 1800 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 15.7N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.4N 126.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.2N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 20.8N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2016 20:35:09 UTC