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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and
recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming
less organized.  The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which
is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in
continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A west-northwestward
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.
After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward
and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow.  The
model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie
during the first few days of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast.  These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 14:41:24 UTC