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Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301451
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with
Rachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now
consisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak
intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite
classifications.  A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30
kt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep
convection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken
into a remnant low later today.  Global model guidance shows the
remnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and
dissipating shortly thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus.

Rachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped
in an environment of weak steering.  The shallow cyclone should
drift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days
around the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation.
The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one,
nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Ramos


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Sep-2014 14:51:12 UTC