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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231446
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since
yesterday at this time.  Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting
in association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an
appearance.  Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend
of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt.
Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly
uncertain.  The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are
likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days.
The GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about
10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over
next three days.  However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests
substantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the
symmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid
intensification.  The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS
statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of
the other guidance.  By days four and five, Marie should be passing
over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere.  The forecast
intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus.
This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided
in the previous advisory from 36 hours onward.  Unfortunately, no
new size information has been available and the wind radii analysis
and prediction remain about the same.

The initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave
passes recently and no eye being seen yet.  However, the available
fixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier
analyzed.  The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly
slower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a
deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the
main steering factor for the entire forecast time.  The track
guidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and
suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track.  The
official track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous
advisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise
quite close in longitude.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.6N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea



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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 14:46:56 UTC