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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 311438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016

The convective ring around Lester's eye has warmed and shrunk a
little in the past couple of hours, but the 15-20 n mi wide eye
remains distinct.  Based on a blend of the latest subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set to 115 kt
for this advisory.  The forecast environment of low shear,
marginally cool SSTs, and a drier mid-level environment should
result in weakening during the next couple of days.  Later in the
period the SSTs remain marginal, but southeasterly shear increases,
and this should result in continued weakening through the rest of
the forecast period.  This trend is seen in all of the intensity
guidance, with some spread.  The NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted downward a bit this cycle.  This forecast is above the
latest IVCN intensity consensus aid through 48 hours and near
the consensus at days 3-5.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10.  Lester will continue to be
steered westward and then turn west-northwestward by an expansive
mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean through the forecast period.  The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however,
there remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance
near the Hawaiian Islands.  The UKMET and GEFS ensemble mean are
along the southern edge of the guidance envelope with a track closer
to the Big Island, while the HWRF and GFDL are farther north of the
island chain.  The ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aids lie between these
scenarios just north of the islands.  The new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and lies between the multi-
model consensus and the latest GFS track.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts
there could be along the island chain from this tropical cyclone
given the track forecast uncertainty in 3 to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 17.8N 138.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 18.1N 142.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.6N 144.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 19.2N 147.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 20.6N 152.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 22.5N 157.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 24.5N 162.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Aug-2016 14:38:19 UTC