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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 301441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Lester continues to slowly weaken.  The eye of the hurricane has
become less defined in satellite images and although convection
remains quite deep, it is more asymmetric than it was overnight.
Recent microwave data also reveal that the eyewall has eroded some
on the north side. A blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Final T- and
CI-numbers, including the UW-CIMSS ADT values, is used to lower the
initial intensity to 105 kt.  Sea surface temperatures ahead of
Lester only lower slightly along the expected track and the wind
shear is expected to be generally light.  The SHIPS model does
show the environmental moisture decreasing near Lester during the
next several days.  These conditions should cause a gradual
weakening of Lester, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous one and stays near the intensity model
consensus.

The major hurricane remains on a due westward course at 12 kt. A
strong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical Pacific
should continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple of
days.  After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is
predicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when
Lester approaches the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5 days.  The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies close to the
various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 18.1N 134.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 18.1N 136.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 18.1N 138.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 18.2N 140.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 142.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 19.8N 147.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 21.4N 152.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 23.4N 157.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi