Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 272031

200 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

Visible images show that Jimena has several spiral convective bands
emanating away from the center, with the inner bands attempting to
consolidate into a ring of convection.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and UW-CIMSS range between 45 and 55 kt, so the initial
intensity is set at 50 kt.  This estimate is also supported by a
1750 UTC ASCAT-B pass, which showed a 45-50 kt wind barb near the
center.  Jimena is in an environment of very low shear and abundant
moisture, and over sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees
Celsius, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) index now shows
about a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity change during the
next 24 hours.  Due to the very favorable conditions, RI is now
explicitly indicated in the NHC intensity forecast.  Environmental
conditions remain conducive for strengthening after 24 hours, and
Jimena is expected to be a major hurricane from 48 hours through
the end of the forecast period.  Since the statistical models seem
to have been doing a better job than the dynamical models on the
recent intensification rate, the updated NHC intensity forecast is a
blend of the previous forecast and the SHIPS and LGEM solutions.

Jimena has turned westward as expected, with an initial motion of
275/11 kt.  The cyclone remains located on the southern periphery
of a strong mid-level ridge, and this feature should continue
steering Jimena westward for the next 36 hours.  After that time, a
weakness in the ridge is expected to develop, which should cause
Jimena to turn west-northwestward through the end of the forecast
period.  The track guidance agrees on this scenario and is tightly
clustered for the entire forecast period.  The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the model consensus, and the only change from
the previous forecast is a slight southward shift during the first
48 hours.


INIT  27/2100Z 12.4N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 12.5N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 12.5N 122.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 12.6N 124.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 13.0N 126.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 14.3N 130.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 16.0N 134.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 17.0N 138.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

Forecaster Berg

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2015 20:32:08 UTC