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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250834
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

Georgette is maintaining its organization. The cyclone exhibits an
annular appearance, with a nearly symmetric CDO and essentially no
banding features.  A 0245 UTC SSMI/S hints at a possible eyewall
replacement, though it's not clear at what stage it has progressed.
Dvorak satellite classifications are a unanimous T6.0 at 0600 UTC,
and on this basis, the intensity estimate is kept at 115 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 315/09.  A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north and east of Georgette would tend to steer it westward
or west-northwestward during the next few days.  However, an upper-
low ahead of it should continue to impart a more northwesterly
motion, though at a much reduced forward speed.  After 72 hours,
Georgette is forecast to become a much shallower cyclone, at which
time the track should bend toward the west and accelerate in the
low-level flow.  The new track forecast is not much different than
the previous one, except that it is slower beyond 72 hours and a
little to the south, in agreement with the consensus track guidance.

The intensity forecast seems straightforward.  Georgette's movement
over a colder sea surface and into increasingly drier and more
stable air mass should soon result in weakening.  The caveat is that
Georgette's annular structure could allow it to maintain more
strength than forecast in the very short term.  By 48 hours,
however, the thermodynamics in the storm's environment should
become hostile, and a more rapid weakening is expected to commence.
The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous
one and is close to the multi-model consensus, except prior to 48
hours when the storm's annular characteristics have been taken into
account.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 16.9N 126.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 17.6N 127.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.2N 128.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 19.6N 130.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 21.4N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  29/0600Z 22.3N 138.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 22.4N 143.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Jul-2016 08:34:59 UTC