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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena's inner eyewall in the southern
portion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 14:38:46 UTC