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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302035
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The weakening trend of Lester appears to have stopped for the time
being.  Satellite images show a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye
surrounded by a solid ring of deep convection.  The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt and automated
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt.
Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 105 kt for
this advisory. The environment ahead of Lester is not hostile, but
slightly lower sea-surface temperatures and drier air along its
track should cause the hurricane to gradually weaken through the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the
previous one and stays near the intensity model consensus.

The major hurricane is now moving a little south of due west at
12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical
Pacific should continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple
of days.  After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is
predicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when
Lester moves near or just north of the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5
days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the
previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 17.8N 135.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 17.8N 137.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 17.9N 139.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 18.1N 141.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 18.5N 143.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 19.9N 148.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 23.3N 158.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Aug-2016 20:35:32 UTC