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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310256
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Lester has shown a sudden reintensification this evening as a
symmetric eyewall with very cold cloud tops is encircling a 25 nm
diameter warm eye.  Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and
TAFB are at 6.5 and 6.0 current intensity numbers, respectively,
while the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 6.3.  A blend of
these gives 120 kt maximum winds at the initial time, up
considerably from the previous advisory.

Lester is anticipated to experience quite low vertical shear for
the next few days, though the lukewarm SSTs and 40-50 percent
humidity air are only marginally conducive for maintaining high
intensities.  The current convective structure and its environment
suggest that Lester may be evolving into an annular hurricane,
which tends to weaken only slowly over time.  The NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the HWRF and DSHP models, and is above that
from the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity.

Lester is moving toward the west-southwest at about 11 kt.  A large
subtropical ridge to its north is providing the westward steering
and low shear environment.  The tightly packed model guidance
indicate that the system should turn slightly toward the west or
west-northwest during the next two days at about the same rate of
forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN
multi-model consensus technique and is very close to that from the
previous advisory.

No new information is available about Lester's initial wind radii,
so that is unchanged from the previous advisory.  The NHC wind radii
forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique and nearly
the same as that from the last advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 17.8N 136.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 17.8N 138.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 18.2N 142.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 18.7N 144.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 20.0N 149.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 21.8N 155.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.5N 159.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Aug-2016 02:56:24 UTC