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Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250857
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Although Pilar continues to produce an area of deep convection,
surface observations and satellite data indicate that the
circulation of the storm is losing definition.  In fact, recent
ASCAT data suggest that Pilar could already be an open trough.
However, we prefer to keep issuing advisories until more
confirmation on the structure of the system is available.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Pilar is very near the west coast of Mexico and it is expected to
move along or just off the coast during the next day or two.  The
interaction with land combined with a significant increase in
southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to weaken to a
tropical depression later today, and dissipate within the next 24
to 36 hours.

Since Pilar lacks a clear center, the initial motion of 340/8 kt is
uncertain.  A slower north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level
flow is expected until the system dissipates.  This track forecast
lies closest to the latest GFS model run.

The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of
Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day
or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 22.2N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 22.8N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 23.6N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Sep-2017 08:58:16 UTC