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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest
of a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating
outward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the
circulation.  The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased
from this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The
center is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly
shear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours.
At the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting
increasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat
content values.  Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in
the official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity
and global models.  The global models open the system up into a
trough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that
time.

The depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the
low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.  Due to its shallow nature,
the depression should continue to move quickly westward until it
dissipates.  The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future
track, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the
consensus of those two models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jul-2015 20:34:04 UTC