Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 282031

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A distinct eye cleared out in both visible and infrared satellite
imagery around 1800 UTC, and convective cloud tops surrounding the
eye are as cold as -75 degrees Celsius.  Dvorak intensity estimates
were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and
the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T5.4/100 kt.  The initial
intensity is therefore raised to 90 kt on this advisory.  Jimena
continues to rapidly intensify, with the intensity having increased
by 35-40 kt in the past 24 hours.

The environment near Jimena remains conducive for further
strengthening.  Low shear and very warm ocean water could allow
rapid intensification to continue, and the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index is showing a 43 percent chance of a 30-kt
increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  Based on the
latest statistical-dynamical guidance, a peak in intensity is likely
to occur between 36 and 48 hours.  After that time, a slightly
drier air mass and decreasing oceanic heat content should lead to a
gradual weakening through day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast
continues to be a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, which have
performed better than the dynamical guidance with Jimena's
strengthening.  As was noted earlier today, once Jimena reaches its
peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate
from the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall

Jimena is still moving westward, or 270/10 kt.  The strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to
weaken within 24 hours, which should allow Jimena to turn
west-northwestward by this time tomorrow.  This trajectory should
then continue through day 5.  The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, although the GFS and the ECMWF shifted a bit
northeastward on this cycle and lie near the edge of the guidance
envelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast lies
slightly right of and a little slower than the previous forecast
through 48 hours.


INIT  28/2100Z 12.3N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 12.4N 124.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 12.9N 126.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 13.7N 128.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 14.6N 130.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 16.2N 135.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 17.7N 140.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Berg

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 20:31:49 UTC