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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270233
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Convective cloud tops continue to warm near Georgette, and there are
no longer any pixels -50C or colder in infrared satellite imagery.
Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are now between
30 kt and 55 kt, so the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt on
this advisory.  Georgette will be moving through a dry environment
and over sea surface temperatures between 23-25C during the next
couple of days, which should cause further weakening.  If deep
convection does not redevelop, then Georgette will likely become
post-tropical in the next 12-24 hours.  The global models then
indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough by day
3.

Center fixes indicate that Georgette is moving again, and the
initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt.  A
low- to mid-level trough extending north of Georgette toward the
California coast appears to have been influencing the cyclone's
recent motion.  This feature is expected to run out ahead of
Georgette during the next day or two, and a re-establishment of the
subtropical ridge should cause the cyclone to turn west-
northwestward and accelerate through 48 hours.  The NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.8N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 19.4N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 20.4N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z 21.1N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 21.6N 135.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Jul-2016 02:33:21 UTC