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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260850
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that
convection associated with a low pressure system located about 350
n mi southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has increased and banding
features have also improved during the past 6 hours. Therefore,
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 28-30 kt surface wind
vectors noted in the eastern quadrant of the low in 0350 UTC
ASCAT-B and 0436 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer data. This intensity is
also supported by a T2.0 Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/12 kt, which is
based primarily on microwave fixes over the past 12 hours. The
depression is moving northwestward along the southwestern
periphery of a strong mid-level ridge located over the
southwestern and south-central United States, and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so. After
that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over
much cooler waters.  As a result, the system is expected to become
more vertically shallow and be steered westward by the strong
easterly low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is
similar to but a little north of the consensus model TVCE.

Tropical Depression Eight-E is currently in a low vertical wind
shear environment and over SSTs greater than 29C. Those favorable
conditions are expected to continue for at least the next 24-30
hours, which should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen at the
typical rate of 20 kt per day. However, due to vertical shear values
of less than 3 kt expected for the next 12-18 hours, it would not
surprise me if the system undergoes a period of rapid
intensification during that time. The official intensity forecast is
slightly higher than all of the available intensity guidance due to
the favorable shear and thermodynamic conditions expected during the
next 24 hours, and the current compact structure of the tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 13.4N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 14.7N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 16.4N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 17.9N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 19.2N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 21.2N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 22.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Jul-2014 08:50:26 UTC