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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261432
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The tropical depression has not changed much during the past
several hours.  Although the system is producing a considerable
amount of deep convection, it is mainly confined to the north side
of the cyclone and is not wrapping around the center.  The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity
estimates.  The environment is currently favorable for the
depression to strengthen, but it is not expected to remain that way
for very long.  In about 2 days, the cyclone will be moving over
cooler waters and into an atmosphere of stronger shear and dry air.
The models show less strengthening this cycle, and the official
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one based on
this guidance.

The system is moving northwestward at about 13 kt.  A slightly
faster west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during
the next couple of days while the cyclone remains embedded in the
fast flow on the southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge over the
southern United States.  A gradual turn toward the west with a
decrease in forward speed is expected beyond a few days when the
weakening cyclone becomes steered by the lighter low-level flow.
The models are tightly clustered, and the official track forecast
is essentially an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 14.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 15.7N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 18.7N 114.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 21.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z 22.0N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Jul-2014 14:33:00 UTC