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Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290834
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation
of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a
post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in
agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass.  The
large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the
eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC
prediction.

Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should
slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a
mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering
currents.  The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest
of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move
west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of
the period.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Marie.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 08:35:06 UTC