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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291437
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

A recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the depression still
has a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection
has become less organized since yesterday.  The intensity remains at
30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Vertical shear
is out of the north-northwest at 10-15 kt, which is lower than
yesterday, but the depression has been moving into an increasingly
drier air mass.  Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and
degenerate into a trough by 48 hours, following the evolution
depicted in the global models.

The initial motion is 270/11 kt, with the depression being steered
westward by the low-level ridge to its north.  A westward motion
with some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before
the depression dissipates, and the updated NHC track forecast is
shifted only slightly southward to follow the GFS-ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 17.0N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.9N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 16.8N 138.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 16.6N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 14:37:45 UTC