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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270850
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Satellite imagery shows that Lester is continuing to intensity, with
an eye gradually becoming better defined inside a central dense
overcast.  Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are near 75 kt, and that value is the initial intensity
for this advisory. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in the
northwestern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 280/9.  Lester is south of a strong
deep-layer subtropical ridge, and the dynamical models forecast
this feature to build westward to the north of the hurricane through
the forecast period.  The forecast guidance remains tightly
clustered around an almost due west motion with an increase in
forward speed during the next several days. The new forecast track
is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the
guidance envelope.

Lester is expected to remain in a low-shear environment during the
forecast period, so the main external factors controlling the
intensity will be sea surface temperatures and possible dry air
entrainment.  During the first 48 hours or so, the hurricane will be
over generally warm water.  Based on current trends, this part of
the intensity forecast has been raised significantly from the
previous advisory and calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt. After
48 hours, a combination of slightly cooler water and dry air
entrainment should cause a gradual weakening.  Overall, the new
intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 17.9N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 18.4N 126.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 18.5N 132.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 18.0N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Aug-2016 08:50:41 UTC