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Tropical Depression Norma Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Norma is on its way to becoming a remnant low.  Satellite
images indicate that only a very small amount of deep convection is
left, and it is confined to the southeast of the center.  The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from a few
hours ago.  Cool waters and dry air should cause additional
weakening, and Norma is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight.  The models agree that the remnant low should continue to
spin down and ultimately dissipate in about 2 days.

The depression is now moving west-northwestward at 6 kt.  A slow
west-northwest to northwest motion in the low-level flow is expected
until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 21.9N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 22.3N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1800Z 22.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 23.2N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Sep-2017 20:35:07 UTC