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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 172053
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

Polo is intensifying, given the improvement of the cloud pattern
during the past several hours. In fact, there was a hint of an eye
feature embedded within a circular area of deep convection around
1800 UTC, but this feature has not been observed since then. Based
on the average of the T-numbers from SAB and TAFB, the initial
intensity is increased to 60 kt. There is an opportunity for Polo to
strengthen before the strong upper-level northeasterlies become
established over the cyclone in 48 hours as indicated by most of the
global models. The NHC forecast is near the upper boundary of the
intensity guidance.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 10 knots. Most of the global models indicate that
the mid-level ridge over Mexico will build westward, and this
pattern will gradually steer Polo toward the west-northwest. On the
forecast track, the core of the cyclone will stay south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. This
official forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows both
the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average of the GFS and the
ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.4N 103.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 20:54:07 UTC