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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 271439
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

Frank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep
convection near and northwest of the center.  A blend of the
TAFB/SAB Dvorak T/CI numbers gives an initial wind speed of 55 kt
for this advisory.  Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone
moving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable
airmass. The official intensity forecast remains near the latest
model consensus, IVCN, and Frank should degenerate into a remnant
low by tomorrow afternoon.

Microwave data indicate the storm continues moving 295/10 kt. Frank
should turn westward and slow down as the cyclone becomes a weak and
shallow remnant low steered by the low-level ridge.  Models have
shifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast
follows that trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 22.7N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.4N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.2N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 24.8N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 25.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 24.8N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Jul-2016 14:39:27 UTC