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Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 261432
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center has been
pulsating during the past several hours. Earlier ASCAT data suggest
that the circulation is becoming elongated, and based on Dvorak
classifications, the intensity has been lowered to 30 knots at this
time.  Most of the global models...primarily the ECMWF, show
unfavorable upper-level winds over the depression, and this pattern
should result in gradual weakening. In addition, both intensity
consensus and LGEM models call for weakening, and so does the
official forecast. Some small fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the depression becomes a remnant low in about 3
days.

The depression is still embedded in the ITCZ, and has been moving
slowly westward or 270 degrees at 4 knots. However, as the
depression weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should be
steered by the low-level flow on the south side of the subtropical
ridge with an increase in forward speed.  This forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 12.2N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Jul-2014 14:32:33 UTC