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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Despite the amount of microwave and ASCAT data available earlier, it
was difficult to precisely locate the center of Polo. It appears
that the cyclone spent several hours meandering or perhaps reforming
within the convection. Currently, the cloud pattern is not very
different from 24 hours ago, and both ASCAT data around 1630 UTC and
the latest Dvorak estimates support an initial intensity of 60 kt.
In terms of the wind field, the same ASCAT data indicate that Polo
has a large area of tropical storm force winds in the southeast
quadrant, but a much smaller area of 34-kt winds in the northern
semicircle.

The combination of strong unfavorable upper-level easterly winds
over Polo and cool waters should result in gradual weakening.
Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for Polo to become a depression
or remnant low in about 3 to 4 days well to west of Baja California.
This is consistent with most of the guidance, primarily the
intensity consensus ICON and LGEM model.

Polo has resumed its northwest track at about 5 knots. A strong
mid-level ridge, which is forecast to amplify to the north of the
cyclone, will keep Polo on a general west-northwest to west track
for the next 3 to 5 days. NHC forecasts have been very consistent
for several cycles in bringing the cyclone well south of the Baja
California peninsula, and this is the solution provided by the
multi-model consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 19.4N 108.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 20:32:37 UTC