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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251435
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Satellite images indicate that upper-level westerly winds are
impinging on the cyclone, and the low-level center continues to
be located to the west of the convection as indicated by the latest
SSMI pass.  Additional analysis of an earlier ASCAT data indicate
that winds associated with Genevieve are 40 knots in a small area to
the northeast of the center. This is the intensity assigned to the
storm at this time, and it was probably the intensity 6 hours ago.
Genevieve appears to have reached it's peak intensity. No further
strengthening is anticipated since a band of very strong upper-level
westerly winds already to the north of the cyclone is forecast by
most of the global models to move closer to Genevieve. This should
result in shear and weakening. Neither statistical nor dynamical
models forecast a significant intensification of the cyclone.

Genevieve is moving westward at 9 knots. The cyclone is embedded
within weak steering currents as a small trough in the westerlies
swings eastward breaking the subtropical ridge. However, the ridge
is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves out, and this
pattern will keep Genevieve on a general westward track for the next
5 days.  During the latter portion of the forecast, the cyclone will
likely become a shallow post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by
the low-level flow. This is the solution provided by most of the
track models, and the official forecast is basically on top of the
multi-model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 12.3N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 12.4N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 12.6N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 13.0N 138.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 13.4N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 13.8N 143.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 14.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 14:35:26 UTC