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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210234
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Polo continues to be buffeted by 25 to 30 kt of easterly shear, and
the cloud pattern features only small patches of disorganized deep
convection west of the center location. Dvorak estimates are slowly
decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on
the latest estimate from TAFB. Given the continued shear and a track
over cooler waters, Polo is forecast to gradually weaken to a
depression and then to a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could
occur sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 300/06. Polo moved a little to the
right of the previous forecast track over the past few hours, but
the overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The
weakening cyclone will continue west-northwestward and then turn
westward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north during the next
couple of days. Afterward, the weak remnant low should turn
southwestward under the influence of a low-level ridge to the west.
The guidance has shifted to the right this cycle, showing a broader
westward and then southwestward turn through dissipation. Based on
this shift, and the initial position and motion, the NHC track has
been shifted about 30 miles to the right of the previous official
forecast toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus through 48
hours, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that
time.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are expected to remain south of the Baja California peninsula.
Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track
could still bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the
Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until Polo
begins to move away from Baja California Sur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 21.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Sep-2014 02:34:13 UTC