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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231441
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
900 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Northeasterly shear continue to affect Frank, with the latest
microwave data showing the center remaining on the northern edge of
the deep convection.  The latest Dvorak estimates support
maintaining the initial wind speed of 55 kt.  The intensity forecast
is becoming a little trickier since the latest guidance is showing
more northeasterly shear.  Consequently, Frank has less of a chance
to intensify, and could reach a peak intensity sooner than
previously anticipated.  The new wind speed forecast has been
reduced 5 to 10 kt during the first few days in response to these
changes, but is still on the high side of the guidance.  Marginal
SSTs are expected to cause Frank to weaken in a couple of days, and
remnant low status is forecast at day 5 due to the cool waters.

Some timely microwave images indicate the storm continues to move
toward the west-northwest at 7 kt.  Frank should remain beneath the
subtropical ridge for the next several days, which will likely steer
the cyclone generally west-northwestward during that time except for
a brief westward motion expected in a couple days of days due to the
ridge temporarily strengthening.  The storm will be passing well
south of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours
and be near Socorro Island later today.  Guidance has changed little
since the last advisory, and the NHC track forecast remains close to
the latest multi-model consensus.

Swells associated with Frank are probably already affecting the
coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of
Sinaloa.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.8N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 19.9N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 20.7N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 20.8N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Jul-2016 14:41:30 UTC