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Tropical Depression POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220832
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

Polo has been devoid of significant deep convection for about 10
hours now.  Satellite images show that the cyclone consists of a
tight swirl of low-level clouds with a few deeper clouds located
over 100 n mi west of the center near the mid-level remnants.
The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, following the latest
Dvorak classifications, making Polo a tropical depression.
Continued weakening is expected while the cyclone remains in an
environment of strong shear, dry air, and over relatively cool
waters.  If deep convection does not return soon, Polo will likely
be declared a remnant low later today.  The remnant low is forecast
to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The depression has moved west-southwestward during the past few
hours, but a longer term motion is 270/7.  A slower westward motion
is expected today, followed by a turn to the southwest on Tuesday
while the shallow system is steered by a low-level ridge to its
northwest.  The NHC track forecast is south of the previous one,
mainly to account for the initial position, and is near the
multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 22.5N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Sep-2014 08:32:32 UTC