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Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221436
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Deep convection continues to gradually decrease around the large
ragged eye-like feature of Lowell. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell should
continue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during
the forecast period, and the cyclone should become post-tropical by
48 hours, and a remnant low by 72 hours.

The initial motion is 315/09. Lowell should continue moving
generally northwestward during the next 48 hours as a mid-level
ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
cyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it comes under the
influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.1N 124.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 14:36:54 UTC