Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone POLO Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221447
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

Polo has been absent of any organized deep convection for more than
12 hours.  Although a few sporadic showers have developed since 0900
UTC over the western half of the circulation, strong east-
southeasterly shear and unfavorable thermodynamic factors should
inhibit any significant return of deep convection.  Based on the
lack of deep convection for some time, the cyclone is being declared
a post-tropical remnant low on this advisory.  The initial wind
speed estimate presumes some spin-down of the vortex since late
yesterday and is lowered to 25 kt on this advisory.  Global models
shows Polo degenerating into an open trough by 48 hours, and so does
the official forecast.

Polo has been moving west-southwestward or 250/07.  The now-shallow
vortex is expected to turn southwestward or south-southwestward
on the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge over the subtropical
eastern Pacific prior to dissipation.  The track forecast is left
of much of the guidance, including the multi-model consensus, given
the already greater southerly component of motion.

For additional information on the remnant low of Polo please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.2N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain




Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 22-Sep-2014 14:47:35 UTC