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Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 282031
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

Frank has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
is now just a large swirl of low-level stratocumulus clouds. Since
the cyclone continues to move into an environment of very dry
mid-level air and near 22 deg C SSTs, redevelopment of organized
deep convection is unlikely.  On this basis, Frank has been
declared a remnant low.  The initial wind speed of 30 kt is based on
an average of subjective T/CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Given the
very stable conditions ahead of the cyclone, the remnant low should
continue to spin down and dissipate by 72 h.

The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The vertically shallow
remnant low should move westward through 24 h, and then toward the
west-southwest by weak easterly to northeasterly low-level tradewind
flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track and lies close to the TVCN consensus track
model.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system.  Additional information on the remnant low can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 24.1N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  29/0600Z 24.2N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 24.1N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 23.9N 127.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 23.6N 127.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Jul-2016 20:32:14 UTC