Tropical Depression NORA Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250832
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009

NORA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 2200 UTC
THURSDAY...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE LOW COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C.
HOWEVER...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0500 UTC...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
GFS. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.1N 123.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 124.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN