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Post-Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301436
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 30 2013

A 1235 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
RAYMOND IS ELONGATED...AND THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED.  IN
ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR
ABOUT 15 HOURS.  THEREFORE...RAYMOND IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A
REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT...BUT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CIRCULATION
SPINS DOWN.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48
HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...MICROWAVE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT IT IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 055/5 KT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THE REMNANT
LOW IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 19.7N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  31/0000Z 20.1N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z 20.6N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-Oct-2013 14:36:33 UTC