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Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270833
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

The eye of Frank disappeared from geostationary imagery around 0600
UTC, indicative of the beginning of a weakening trend.  Central
convection has been gradually diminishing, and Dvorak T-numbers
are decreasing.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt which is a
blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Frank is starting to
traverse a gradient of SSTs, so steady weakening is expected as the
cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters.  The official
intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN,
and calls for the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
low in about 48 hours.

The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.
A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast by the global models to
remain to the north of Frank for the next few days, with some
weakening of this ridge.  Therefore, a continued west-northwestward
motion with some deceleration is forecast for the next couple of
days.  After that, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to move
generally westward following the low level environmental winds.
The official track forecast follows the dynamical consensus aid,
TVCN.

Data from an ASCAT overpass indicated that Frank was smaller than
previously estimated, and the wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 22.5N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 23.3N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 24.3N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 25.0N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 25.3N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/0600Z 25.3N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch