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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015


Andres has strengthened a little more this morning.  The cloud
pattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane
intermittently appearing in satellite images.  Recent microwave
data show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features
are concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to
northwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making
Andres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.

The hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the
SHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore,
some additional short-term strengthening is possible even though
none of the models suggest intensification.  After that time,
however, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler
water and into a more stable airmass.  These unfavorable conditions
should promote a steady weakening trend.  The official forecast is
a little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to
account for the higher initial intensity.

Andres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected to
occur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north
of the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the
remainder of the forecast period.  Little change was made to the
previous forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 14:35:31 UTC