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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311438
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

There hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of
Vance during the past several hours.  While the central convection
has weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature
on the east side has increased.  Dvorak estimates are similar to 6
hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt.  Vance
continues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air.  Most
of the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the
weekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence
expected as well.  The latest model guidance generally shows a
higher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at
48-72 hours.  After that time, a significant increase in
southwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening
while the cyclone approaches Mexico.

The center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the
latest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been
creeping toward the south-southwest.  A ridge over the eastern
Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days,
steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today,
westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance
is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a
trough moving over Baja California.  While the models are in good
agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the
timing of the turn toward Mexico.  The guidance is generally faster
than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend.
Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly
because of the initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 10.1N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 14:38:21 UTC