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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210838
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Karina is being affected by moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear,
with the low-level center located on the northeastern edge of the
deep convection.  Subjective and objective T-numbers have decreased
from 6 hours ago, and a blend of the T-numbers and CI numbers
supports bringing the maximum winds down to 45 kt.  Water vapor
imagery shows an expansive area of dry mid-/upper-level air surging
southward on the west side of Tropical Storm Lowell toward Karina.
This flow will likely continue to disrupt Karina's structure during
the next day or so, and drier air may also begin to infiltrate into
the cyclone's circulation.  In addition, Karina will be moving over
sub-26C water in about 3 days.  All these factors argue for little
change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by weakening
and degeneration to a remnant low by day 4.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, mainly
due to the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the
intensity consensus.

Recent microwave images suggest that Karina has been drifting
east-southeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 110/2 kt.
The cyclone is likely to drift southeastward and east-southeastward
for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the distance between
Karina and Lowell will be decreasing, and Karina will respond by
accelerating northeastward and then northward around the east side
of Lowell beyond 48 hours.  The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and no significant changes from the previous NHC
forecast were required on this advisory.  Although a 5-day point is
given, Karina will likely be in the process of becoming absorbed by
Lowell, and it is possible that a surface center may no longer exist
at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 15.6N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Aug-2014 08:38:25 UTC