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Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092031
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized
deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Therefore
the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low,
and this will be the last advisory on Javier.  Surface observations
and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are
near 25 kt.  The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it
is likely to dissipate by Thursday.

The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of
initial motion is around 310/9 kt.  The low is likely to continue
moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure
system until dissipation.  The official track forecast is close to
the model consensus.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch