| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 201435
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Karina's cloud pattern has become a little better organized with the
center embedded within the deep convection. Satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T3.5 on the Dvorak scale at
1200 UTC. Since that time, deep convection has decreased a little,
and the initial intensity is set at 50 kt instead of the 55 kt
supported by the Dvorak numbers.

As long as Karina remains over warm waters and moderate shear, there
will be small fluctuations in intensity. Once the cyclone moves away
from the deep tropics in 3 days or so, it will encounter cooler
waters and it will begin to weaken. The NHC forecast follows the
intensity consensus model, which keeps Karina at 50 kt for at least
3 more days.

As anticipated, Karina has moved very little and most likely will
meander or remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours.  As soon
as Karina begins to feel the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's
larger circulation in 36 hours or so, it will begin to drift
eastward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed
around the south and east sides of Lowell. Guidance has not changed
significantly, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
one, and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 15.8N 136.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila



Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 14:35:49 UTC