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Post-Tropical Cyclone TINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150232
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016
800 PM MST MON NOV 14 2016

Tina's circulation has become much less vigorous and diffuse today
in the absence of any additional convective bursts.  The paltry
amount of convection that persists is not considered organized
enough to call Tina a tropical cyclone, and the system is thus being
declared a remnant low.  Although the low is still over very warm
waters, a deep layer of very strong southwesterly shear and an
increasingly stabilizing and drier atmosphere should preclude
regeneration.  Dissipation of the low is anticipated in 24 hours or
less, in agreement with the global models.

The remnant low is moving 270/06.  The shallow vortex should
continue westward or west-southwestward under the influence of the
low-level subtropical eastern Pacific ridge until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Tina.  For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  15/1200Z 18.9N 110.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Nov-2016 02:33:16 UTC