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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142031
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The low-level center of the depression has become easier to locate
this afternoon, since it is now partially exposed on the east side
of the deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 25 kt of easterly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications and a
partial ASCAT pass around 1730 UTC.

The depression is moving east-northeastward at about 7 kt while
continuing to be drawn into the large circulation of major Hurricane
Odile.  A turn toward the northeast and then the north-northeast is
expected during the next 24 hours before the system opens up into a
trough.  Little change in strength is expected before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 15.6N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 20.8N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Sunday, 14-Sep-2014 20:32:07 UTC