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Post-Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN
SOONER. 

THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN
THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Oct-2013 02:33:45 UTC