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Post-Tropical Cyclone RICK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 222028
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
100 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Rick has become a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of
organized deep convection for more than 12 hours.  As a result,
Rick is now a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the
last NHC advisory on this system.  The initial intensity remains
30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current
intensity estimate from TAFB.  Dry air, strong southwesterly shear,
and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of the
low should cause weakening during the next couple of days, and
dissipation is expected within 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt.  The low should turn
northward during the next day or so, then become nearly stationary
as the low-level steering flow weakens. After that time, the remnant
low is forecast to turn eastward or southeastward before dissipation
occurs.  The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
latest global model guidance and is similar to the previous
NHC advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 18.1N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 19.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 20.5N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown