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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDRES Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 042040
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2015

Although the low-level center of Andres remains intact, organized
deep convection has been absent from the center for more than 12
hours.  In addition, what minimal convection remains is displaced a
considerable distance to the northeast of the center.  On this
basis, Andres is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories
are being terminated at this time.  Gradual weakening of the vortex
is expected to continue during the next couple of days due to
unfavorable environmental conditions, and global models show Andres
degenerating into an open trough by Saturday.  The NHC forecast
calls for dissipation between 48 and 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 095/03.  Now a shallow system, the
remnants of Andres are expected to be primarily steered by the
combination of low-level ridging to the northwest, along with a tug
by the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east.  This
should induce a slow east-southeastward to southeastward motion
until complete dissipation.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 20.1N 124.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 19.7N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 19.1N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 18.7N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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Page last modified: Thursday, 04-Jun-2015 20:40:47 UTC