Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTPZ41 KNHC 201440

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Since the last advisory, Fernanda has become significantly sheared
with the low-level center now exposed to the southwest of a rather
small area of deep convection.  The initial intensity is reduced to
55 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and it is
possible that this is generous.  While the sea surface temperatures
along the forecast track should increase, a combination of
continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air
should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast
period. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression in 24-36
h and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter, with the
new intensity forecast being an update of the previous forecast.

The now-exposed center is a little west of the previous advisory
position, and the initial motion is now 285/8.  Fernanda is
expected to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast
period as the increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by
the low-level trade winds.  The new forecast track is parallel to,
but south of, the previous track based on the current position and
motion.  However, it lies to the north of the consensus models and
the center of the guidance envelope, and if current trends continue
some additional southward adjustment of the track could occur later


INIT  20/1500Z 18.2N 139.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 18.6N 140.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 19.0N 142.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 19.5N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 20.1N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 22.5N 154.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 160.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Jul-2017 14:40:40 UTC