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Post-Tropical Cyclone ORLENE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deep organized convection has been absent in Orlene for over 18
hours at this point.  Given the expectation of continued hostile
conditions - cool SSTs and a stable, dry atmosphere - convection is
unlikely to resume and Orlene is now considered a post-tropical
remnant low.  Peak winds are estimated to be about 30 kt, assuming
a continued spin down of the circulation.  The system should
gradually weaken and open up into a trough in about three days.

Orlene is moving toward the west at about 8 kt.  The remnant low
should advect along in the low-level trade wind flow at a somewhat
faster forward speed until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 20.1N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  17/1200Z 20.1N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 20.0N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 19.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 19.9N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea



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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2016 02:33:15 UTC