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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230250
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Karina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at
nearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time.  Its
appearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small
eye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery.  A corresponding
warm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present.  A
blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports
raising the initial intensity to 70 kt.  The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA
SATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at
least 70 kt.  The recent intensification trend is expected to be
short-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters.
The GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48
hours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow
weakening is forecast.  After that, stronger shear and a drier
environment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is
expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be 045/6.  There is very little
change to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still
expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while
interacting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell.
After Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more
toward the north.  There is considerably more uncertainty in the
forecast beyond 72 hours.  Some models forecast that Karina will
turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of
Lowell.  Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move
close enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second
Fujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion.
The official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been
slowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 134.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven



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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 02:50:34 UTC