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Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 302035
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Discussion Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017

Active deep convection at the center of Maria appears to have ceased
this morning after the cyclone crossed a sharp SST gradient, and
SSTs below 23 deg C are unlikely to allow persistent convection to
redevelop.  Recent visible satellite imagery and data from a late
arriving ASCAT pass at 1348 UTC indicate the presence of a sharp
wind shift extending from near the center of Maria well to the
northeast, suggesting that the cyclone has acquired frontal
characteristics. Based on this, Maria is now classified as
extratropical, and this is the last advisory.

The earlier ASCAT data was used as the basis for the initial
intensity of 45 kt.  Maria has continued to move quickly toward the
east-northeast, and all of the models indicate that the
post-tropical cyclone will continue on this track for the next day
or two.  Gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation occurs
within a larger frontal zone over the North Atlantic in about 48
hours.  The NHC forecast incorporates guidance from NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 42.0N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  01/0600Z 43.8N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  01/1800Z 46.4N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  02/0600Z 48.9N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Sep-2017 20:36:18 UTC