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Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 030236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Radar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is
moving ashore just south of Tampico.  The initial intensity remains
40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations.
The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde
data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
the NASA Global Hawk.  Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while
the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within
a day or so.

The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt.  Dolly is forecast to
continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge
until dissipation occurs.  The new NHC track is similar to the
previous advisory and is close to the GFS model.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 21.9N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 22.0N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 03-Sep-2014 02:36:41 UTC